Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.341768 0.390845 0.444152 0.506312 0.576764 0.654095 0.745372
2025-08-17 0.253329 0.314393 0.385965 0.475894 0.585721 0.715335 0.879770
2025-08-24 0.198950 0.266180 0.350665 0.464288 0.612748 0.799759 1.052822
2025-08-31 0.158144 0.227142 0.319717 0.452399 0.637002 0.883988 1.238656
2025-09-07 0.133153 0.204389 0.305993 0.460482 0.688271 1.010394 1.498785
2025-09-14 0.106484 0.174273 0.276814 0.441800 0.698888 1.082026 1.693484
2025-09-21 0.088248 0.153436 0.257649 0.434447 0.724504 1.178339 1.937770
2025-09-28 0.073281 0.134997 0.238990 0.424509 0.744039 1.267398 2.182913
2025-10-05 0.065105 0.126526 0.235172 0.438154 0.803673 1.427852 2.564664
2025-10-12 0.056209 0.115069 0.224204 0.437403 0.838116 1.550300 2.898350
2025-10-19 0.049559 0.106594 0.217170 0.442474 0.883343 1.696804 3.293010
2025-10-26 0.044578 0.100491 0.213570 0.453329 0.940607 1.871855 3.761796
2025-11-02 0.037245 0.088328 0.196445 0.435686 0.942020 1.946606 4.059702
2025-11-09 0.030653 0.076458 0.177882 0.411999 0.927688 1.989168 4.301649
2025-11-16 0.026334 0.068917 0.167336 0.403775 0.944559 2.096819 4.690915
2025-11-23 0.022636 0.062094 0.157188 0.394712 0.958200 2.199656 5.084641
2025-11-30 0.020492 0.058742 0.154585 0.402793 1.011884 2.395855 5.707325
2025-12-07 0.017389 0.052182 0.142969 0.387051 1.007316 2.462164 6.049244
2025-12-14 0.015213 0.047688 0.135752 0.381067 1.025375 2.582513 6.531577
2025-12-21 0.013245 0.043346 0.128123 0.372652 1.035971 2.686547 6.989087
2025-12-28 0.012323 0.041928 0.128202 0.384957 1.101878 2.932978 7.824366
2026-01-04 0.011057 0.039156 0.123947 0.384483 1.133713 3.098731 8.479794
2026-01-11 0.010099 0.037160 0.121600 0.389103 1.180281 3.308284 9.274622